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Friday, May 1, 2020 | History

2 edition of Comparison and verification of dynamical and statistical Lake Erie storm surge forecasts found in the catalog.

Comparison and verification of dynamical and statistical Lake Erie storm surge forecasts

W. S. Richardson

Comparison and verification of dynamical and statistical Lake Erie storm surge forecasts

  • 154 Want to read
  • 24 Currently reading

Published by U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service in [Silver Spring, Md.] .
Written in English

    Subjects:
  • Storm surges -- Erie, Lake.,
  • Weather forecasting.

  • Edition Notes

    StatementWilliam S. Richardson and David J. Schwab.
    SeriesNOAA technical memorandum NWS TDL -- 69.
    ContributionsSchwab, David J., United States. National Weather Service. Techniques Development Laboratory., Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.
    The Physical Object
    Paginationiii, 19 p. :
    Number of Pages19
    ID Numbers
    Open LibraryOL17653020M

    seasonal forecasts ØFlux-adjustment and inclusion of atmospheric ICs do not improve raw model DJF precipitation forecasts appreciably ØThe rectified WT hybrid dynamical-statistical forecast system substantially reduces precipitation forecast RMSE and improves FLOR P2 correlation skill, especially over the central U.S. A storm surge is an unexpectedly high water level brought on by unusual atmospheric conditions. Much of the world's coastline is at risk of storm surges, which are among the most devastating of natural catastrophes. Read more. eSurge is funded by the European Space Agency through its DUE programme.   Storm Surge–Plain and Simple (Part 2) Posted on July 2, In our last storm surge post, we talked about the need for a storm surge graphic and why we use “above ground level” to communicate storm surge forecasts. Now we’ll discuss how we create the new storm surge graphic. But first, we need to touch on how forecast uncertainty relates to storm surge forecasting. Lake Erie. Lake Huron. Lake Michigan. Lake Ontario. Lake St. Clair. Lake Superior. Great Lakes SPC Day 3 Outlook. More >> Day Outlook. Z T-Storm Outlook. Z T-Storm Outlook. Z T-Storm Outlook. More >> Z T-Storm Outlook. Upcoming Webinars. Great Lakes - Forecasts/Observations/Satellite Imagery. Current Surface.


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Comparison and verification of dynamical and statistical Lake Erie storm surge forecasts by W. S. Richardson Download PDF EPUB FB2

Get this from a library. Comparison and verification of dynamical and statistical Lake Erie storm surge forecasts.

[W S Richardson; David J Schwab; United States. National Weather Service. Techniques Development Laboratory,; Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory,] -- The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and the Techniques Development Laboratory have compared.

Storm Surge (ppt MB) - Talk provided to storm surge workshop in Mobile, AL (May ) SLOSH Display Program (ppt MB) - Talk provided to storm surge workshop in Mobile, AL (May ) SLOSH Display Program to ESRI Arc GIS (pptx MB) - Created June ; Storm Surge at MDL (ppt 28 MB) - SLOSH, P-Surge, and ETSS (Created.

To continually improve the quality of operational storm surge guidance and decision support tools used by NWS's National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), regional headquarters, coastal Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and River Forecast Centers (RFCs), along with NWS operational partners such as local Emergency Managers (EMs), Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the.

Dynamical models of the atmosphere, also known as numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, are extremely complex and use supercomputers to solve the mathematical equations governing the physics and motion of the tanding these equations requires knowledge of not only meteorology, but also high-level mathematics, including calculus and differential equations.

of several surge events on Lake Erie in –93 was made by Kelley et al. () using the GLCFS forced by the Penn State–NCAR MM4 model output. Recently the km Eta Model output has been used to force the POM and produce forecasts for Lake Erie (Kelley et al.

The GLCFS forecasts are made available on the. Lake Erie is an enclosed, shallow sea with approximate mean dimensions of 60 feet in depth, miles in length, and 40 miles in width. It is located in the region of confluence of the principal winter-time tracks associated with Alberta and Colorado lows, and therefore is exposed to wind action from severe cyclonic storms many of which reach Cited by:   A time-independent dynamical model of storm surge along island coasts using orthogonal curvilinear coordinates is presented.

The curved annulus between an island coast and an arbitrary deep-water boundary is mapped conformally onto a rectangular image. Two configurations of island coasts are investigated; circular and elliptic coasts. The corresponding coordinates are circular polar and Cited by: 1.

Accurate prediction of storm surge is a difficult problem. Most forecast systems produce multiple possible forecasts depending on the variability in weather conditions, possible temperature levels, winds, etc. Ensemble modeling techniques have been developed with the stated purpose of obtaining the best forecast (in some specific sense) from the individual by: 2.

• Great Lakes Storm Surge Operational System (GLSSOS) was developed for the purpose of providing a flood early warning system for Canadian communities located along the shorelines of the Great Lakes −Lake Superior, Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario • DHI was hired to develop and calibrate hydrodynamic and wave models for.

Storm surge and storm tide information Present winds and the expected time of onset of tropical storm or hurricane-force winds Tornado, flood, flash flood, rip current, beach erosion, and inland high wind potential Below is an example of the storm surge portion of an Hurricane Local Statement.

A subgroup was organized to focus on MJO operational prediction and was tasked to develop a MJO forecast metric for comparison of dynamical models from operational global prediction systems. The activity is housed at CPC where the application, display, and evaluation of these MJO model forecasts is being done.

Three real-time storm surge forecasting systems [the eight-member Stony Brook ensemble (SBSS), the Stevens Institute of Technology’s New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (SIT-NYHOPS), and the NOAA Extratropical Storm Surge (NOAA-ET) model] are verified for 74 available days during the –08 and –09 cool seasons for five stations around the New York City–Long Island by: example of the model’s application to storm surge events in Southeast Asia.

Performance of the model In this section, we describe the performance of the storm surge model with two case studies and a comparative verification of surge prediction with two different forcing fields. (a) (b) File Size: KB. used in wind and surge analysis, but the wind and surge calculated using these profiles have yet to be compared in a statistical sense (though case studies do exist [e.g., Phadke.

Storm surges can then be predicted based on the current hurricane forecast, and the pre-generated storm surge of the closest match can be chosen through a table lookup or using a statistical.

the existing European storm surge models. The best performance of European storm surge models for non-storm and storm conditions was achieved by KNMI (with Kalman filter data assimilation) and BSH with errors of cm and cm, respectively.

Whereas the chaotic model can provide 6 and 48 hours forecasts with errors of cm. The storm surge that followed Tropical Storm Sandy in produced waves of water over 9 feet above normal tides, which slammed into the Northeastern United.

2 Storm surge modeling Storm surge modeling has advanced significantly over the past 30years which turns out to be very essential to anticipate the occurrence of coastal flooding. Some advances on physically-based storm surge modeling have been reported by Bode and Hardy (), Battjes et al.

() and Verlaan et al. ().Cited by: Shinnecock Inlet: Temp ° F Wind mph from the WNW. Smith Point Bridge: Temp ° F Wind mph from the NW. Southampton: Temp ° F Wind mph from the N. The air-sea drag coefficient controls the transfer of momentum from wind to water.

In modeling storm surge, this coefficient is a crucial parameter for estimating the surge height. This study uses two strong wind events on Lake Erie to calibrate the drag coefficient using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system and the the Regional Ocean Modeling System.

Lake St. Clair 3 2 Lake Erie 9 2 Lake Ontario 7 2 3. METEOROLOGICAL DATA AND FORECASTS For a storm surge and wave forecasting system, the wind speed and direction are the main drivers influencing water level changes and wave generation.

As such, the availability and accessibility of accurate. Storm surges are the result of low barometric pressure and high winds, and they can have devastating effects on coastal areas.

Numerical models provide a viable way to examine the potential impacts of storm surges on coastal areas. Flooding and structural damage from storm surges can be more fully understood with these models. Predicting Storm Surge “One swell of a problem” Dack Stuart, Brian Pierce, Amy Gartman, Matt Grossi Mast – Physical Oceanography Storm surge is defined to be the difference between the observed water lever and the predicted level of the astronomical tides and is a probable and dangerous consequence of high wind events.

Lake Erie is a large inland lake in North America, located between the United States and Canada. The lake is divided into three major basins, distinguished by their depth (see Figure 1). At an average depth of 19 m Lake Erie is the most shallow of all the American Great Lakes, and consequently it is susceptible to storm surge during high winds.[8].

Storm surge modeling was motivated by the need to provide a series of technical tools to the members of the Governor’s Gulf of Mexico Alliance to better understand the effects of sea level rise (SLR) coupled with storm surge in key coastal areas. The results of the storm surge scenarios were used to derive the statistical analysis of.

We will use storm surge models with a horizontal resolution of 1/12° (for ensemble forecasts) and 1/30° (for deterministic forecasts) to demonstrate an increase in the lead time of useful forecasts from two to six days; (iii) Explore novel ways of visualizing the results from the ensemble forecast by: storm surge and aggregate sea level forecasting service: • Enhancing the existing storm surge forecasting and warning capabilities and practices • Based on solid science including the latest approaches to dynamical storm surge forecasting • Utilising synergies with existing operational forecast systems available at the Bureau.

Know the Basics A storm surge is water that is pushed onto shore by a hurricane. It is rarely a "wall of water" as often claimed, but rather a rise of water that can be as rapid as several feet in. Title: Simulation and forecasting of Lake Erie storm surges. Author: Schwab Created Date: 3/31/ PM.

Here, I’ll be talking about dynamical models, which use complex physical equations to predict the future, rather than statistical models. Statistical models are simpler, and use historical observations and their relationships to predict how conditions might evolve. Tony has a brief explanation of statistical models in the notes of this post.

An Ensemble-Based Storm Surge Forecasting System for the Coast of Norway Øyvind Saetra, Nils Melsom Kristensen, Anne-Mette Olsen, (same for the deterministic storm surge model) 7. Forecast verification based on data for 1 October - 30 April the errors of storm surge forecasts are assumed to come from wind speed by using a smaller or larger value than v 0 calculated by the Holland model, and water-level.

Storm Prediction Center publications and authors listing. The following is a list of all publications produced by current members of the Storm Prediction Center's staff.

The list is organized alphabetically by author last name and then chronologically for each person, updated a few times per year, and may not be a complete record. We also offer a reverse-chronological version.

A complete list of papers lead-authored or co-authored by current SPC staff members is available as well, in addition to the papers provided below that were written at SPC. Papers with SPC-affiliated lead authors, published in formal, refereed journals (e.g., AMS, EJSSM, NWA), alphabetic by author.

Several large storm surge events have caused loss of life and damage to property in Europe during the past century. The most notable event occurred in when more than 2 people were killed, and there was massive damage to property around the coastline of the southern North Sea.

There is strong evidence that extreme coastal water levels have increased at many locations around. The future of storm surge prediction could involve real-time coupling of surge and full-physics atmospheric models; thus, their accuracies must be understood in a real hurricane scenario.

The authors compare predictions from a parametric vortex model (using forecast tracks from the National Hurricane Center) and a full-physics coupled.

the systematic bias in storm surge forecasts caused by various uncertainties. In section 2, the Princeton Ocean Model and its ad-joint model are briefly introduced.

Section 3 describes theexperimentalsetupdesign,includingtheselectionof the storm surge case and model domain. The results are presented in section 4. Conclusions and discussion are.

Sensitivity of dynamical Seasonal Forecasts to This paper is organised as follows. In section 2, the model and the data assimilation scheme used are described. Section 3 compares four ocean analyses over the ’s produced with and without ocean data.

Storm surge models are a useful scientific tool for predicting real-time storm surge and future planning. These models provide real-time forecasting of the water level and potential inundation under storm conditions. Storm surge models are also used to hindcast the flooding generated by past hurricanes, assess future flood risks, and produce potential flooding maps for planning purposes.

An automated storm surge forecasting system was created around ADCIRC to predict the storm surge from tropical cyclones in real time as a storm approaches. This system was then applied to Lake Pontchartrain in Southern Louisiana as a case study in order to assist the US Army Corps of Engineers with planning decisions that must be made as storms Cited by:.

The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map represents the storm surge heights that a person should prepare for before a storm, given the uncertainties in the meteorological forecast.

The map shows a reasonable worst-case scenario (i.e., a reasonable upper bound) of the flooding of normally dry land at particular locations due to storm surge.

Surge is the water a storm pushes ashore as it arrives. Its height, extent, and areas flooded depend on many factors, including the speeds of .P DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL MODELS FOR LIGHTNING PREDICTION TO HR OVER CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES William R.

Burrows Environment Canada - Science and Technology Branch - Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, Toronto, ON and Hydrometeorology and Arctic Lab, Edmonton, AB 1.

INTRODUCTION The Canadian portion of the North.